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Newt Gingrich ended his campaign against Mitt Romney in Florida with the same message strategy that Romney??s senior advisers had used in another Republican primary two years earlier: Attack Goldman Sachs.fake louis vuitton shoes There was a good reason. Amid the orange groves and senior centers, the successful investment bank served as Gingrich??s red meat for the right. ??You look at Goldman Sachs, which was the number one funder of Obama; now they??re the number one funder of Romney,?? he told CBS News, just a day before the polls closed. ??I think it??s pretty easy to make the case Romney is the guy who will manage the decay.replica gucci shoes?? The echoes were unmistakable. In 2010, Romney??s current pollster, Neil Newhouse, and top ad man, Stuart Stevens, had employed a nearly identical strategy when attacking a Republican frontrunner, Meg Whitman, in the California gubernatorial primary. ??Goldman executives donated over $100,000 to Whitman,?? ran one of the ads, for Steve Poizner, called ??Vulture.?? ??Meg Whitman: Bad judgment.replica gucci shoes Wrong values.?? The reasons for the matching strategies speak to a central shift that has occurred in the national electorate, and the Republican Party, since the 2008 economic collapse. Economic populism??the idea that the many have been fleeced by the rich few–is no longer just a Democratic argument, which can be used to attract blue collar independents in the Midwest. It now works deep in the Republican ranks, having been first adopted by the no-bailout, Washington corruption message of the Tea Party in 2009.louis vuitton belts (MORE:?Fickle Florida: What Romney??s Victory Says About the Bellwether State??s Mood ?? and the Nation??s) Shortly before the New Hampshire primary took place, leaders of Priorities USA, the pro-Obama super PAC, tested messages among Republicans in South Carolina to explore the best way to attack Romney. What they found surprised them. Among Republicans with only a high school diploma, 67% admitted to greater doubts about Romney when read a statement about layoffs at Romney??s former firm, Bain Capital. When read a statement about Romney paying lower taxes because of his investment income, 62% of high school graduates said they had greater doubts about Romney.chanel outlet College graduates, by contrast, were less impressed, saying they were swayed by the messages by 42% and 41%, respectively. Those same trends have been seen nationally. In a December NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, voters were asked to respond to a statement that read, ??The current economic structure of the country is out of balance and favors a very small proportion of the rich. America needs to reduce the power of major banks and corporations and demand greater accountability and transparency.louis vuitton shoes replica The government should not provide financial aid to corporations and should not provide tax breaks to the rich.” Among Republican primary voters, 60% agreed, and 40% agreed strongly. The same proportions agreed among self-described Tea Party supporters. Among Independents, 79% agreed, and 62% agreed strongly.replica gucci shoes A more recent Pew Poll found that 66% of Americans see a ??very strong?? or ??strong?? conflict in this country between the rich and poor. When asked by Pew if the wealthy pay their ??fair share?? in taxes, 38% of Republicans and 57% of independents say the answer is no. (MORE: Occupy Mitt: Protesters Come Face-to-Face with the 1% in Florida) It is in this context that the Obama campaign has debuted a master campaign message that plays right into this class-based sense of injustice now roiling all sides of the ideological spectrum. This is the reason Obama has focused on the so-called Buffett Rule, which would raise taxes on some millionaires while having a minimum impact on the poor.fake chanel shoes It is why the President can hardly pass a microphone these days without calling on the rich to ??pay their fair share.?? It is why Obama has refurbished an old Bill Clinton line from 1992. ??Let??s never forget,?? he said in the State of the Union address. ??Millions of Americans who work hard and play by the rules every day deserve a government and a financial system that do the same.louis vuitton replica?? Just how the Romney campaign responds, beyond decrying such comments as ??class warfare?? and ??attacks on free enterprise,?? is still an open question. But some Republican strategists and pollsters doubt that simply blaming Obama will be enough. Henry Olson, a conservative scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, argues that Republicans face a real challenge, that goes beyond the perceptions of Romney’s wealth and past. Working class white voters, he argues, have become increasingly alienated from the conservative policy agenda of spending cuts and continuing low taxes, just as they have been turned off by President Obama’s performance.louis vuitton belts ??You are gambling that they will dislike Obama more than they disagree with you,?? Olson said of the current Republican playbook. But that is a question for another day. First the Republican primary will have to be resolved, and the early signs are that the economic populist attacks, from both Gingrich and Obama’s allies, are already taking its toll. A recent Washington Post poll found Romney dropping to 23% favorability rating among independents, from levels in the mid-40s last fall.louis vuitton outlet online Romney still has time to respond, but there is no doubt that he will have to forcefully.
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2013年11月16日星期六

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For much of the past six months, if you asked a Democrat about Massachusetts Republican Senator Scott Brown, you’d hear some mix of exasperation and amazement.fake ugg boots In a state that went for Barack Obama by 26 points in 2008, Brown, who won the late Ted Kennedy’s seat in a 2010 special election, has been more than holding his own against liberal icon Elizabeth Warren. Brown’s combination of homespun appeal and a knack for playing the middle on the issues is “sadly masterful,” one Democrat told me at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte. And it has more than a few Massachusetts Dems, who outnumber registered Republicans in the state by a 3 to 1 margin, carefully weighing their options. Until this week, in fact, the most important uncommitted Democrat in the country was probably Boston Mayor Tom Menino, the kind of big-city, big-personality, machine politician who seems to have stepped out of another age; a majority of the residents of Boston say they’ve personally met Menino and an even high number say they like him.louis vuitton neverfull For months, he praised both Brown and Warren ?? once even declaring the Republican Senator unbeatable ?? but declined to endorse either of them. Warren’s campaign, anxious about getting conservative urban Democrats to vote for a Harvard professor over a truck-driving National Guardsman from Wrentham, didn’t relish facing Election Day without Menino’s turnout machine on its side. Now, as it turns out, it probably won’t have to. Menino’s endorsement is expected to come Friday, according to the Dorchester Reporter, and it’s just the latest in a series of auspicious signs for Warren and Democratic Senate candidates like her.louis vuitton replica As volatile polling clouds the presidential race and pundits diagnose the Romney campaign’s alleged ills, it’s actually the GOP’s effort to take the Senate, not the White House, that’s in grave condition. It wasn’t supposed to be that way; 2012 was widely viewed as a very favorable year for the GOP: Democrats are defending 23 of the 33 contested seats and will lose their majority if they lose a net four of them. But over the past month, something has gone seriously wrong. Nate Silver’s forecasting model lurched from giving Democrats just a 39% chance of holding the Senate in mid-August to a 79% chance this week.louis vuitton belts The shift is evident across the country. In Florida, incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson has opened up a considerable lead on Republican challenger Connie Mack, with four recent major polls in the state finding Nelson 7 to 14 points ahead. The race had been a tie in July. Former Virginia governor and DNC chair Tim Kaine is leading George Allen by about 4 points, with recent polling showing him ahead by as much as 8.fake louis vuitton shoes This, after months of deadlock. In Ohio, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown’s once narrow lead has widened to about 7 points, and in Wisconsin, Representative Tammy Baldwin has just taken a thin lead in the polls after months of trailing Republican former governor Tommy Thompson. Each race is different, and these close contests are far from over. But Brown’s case in Massachusetts is instructive.fake louis vuitton Throughout the spring and summer, Massachusetts played host to one of the most closely watched Senate races in history. Outside spending groups showed up in force before the candidates signed a cease-fire agreement. When Obama borrowed and botched Warren’s words by saying “You didn’t build that,” her line about businesses owing the government some credit for their success became a national flashpoint. Controversy erupted over Warren’s claim of Native American heritage during her teaching days.replica louis vuitton Through it all, the the polls barely budged. Brown and Warren were tied, and nothing seemed to change that. Until early September. Four recent polls suddenly showed Warren grinding out a small lead.louis vuitton neverfull Part of that change may have to do with Warren herself; voters are getting to know the political novice as advertising picks up and she comes off a plum speaking slot at the DNC. A Suffolk University survey found her net approval rating increasing nine points, to +19, from May to September. But more important, Brown is losing crossover appeal. The number of Democrats who said they were backing the Senator decreased by more than a fifth since May, even as Brown’s robust +31 popularity in the state hardly moved.louis vuitton replica And if you listen to the candidate himself, he seems worried that his interparty appeal is being compromised by the national Republican Party. Brown was quick to disavow Todd Akin’s comments on rape and even quicker to distance himself from Mitt Romney’s videotaped remarks disparaging the 47% of Americans who don’t pay federal income taxes. “I??m Scott Brown, he??s Mitt Romney. We disagree on a whole host of things,” Brown told TIME on Wednesday.gucci handbag for sale ??I lived in 17 houses by the time I was 18. My mom got public assistance for a short period of time. I don??t think anybody is on public assistance because they want to be.” But it isn’t just the case of one moderate Senator in a liberally inclined state.loui vuitton Senator Dean Heller of Nevada, locked in a tight race with Representative Shelley Berkley, similarly disavowed Romney’s worldview espoused in the video posted by Mother Jones. “I have a very different view of the world, having grown up, as I said, with a father who was an auto mechanic and a mother who was a school cook and five brothers and sisters,” Heller said. “I believe in a safety net. I believe that’s one of the responsibilities of the federal government.louis vuitton speedy?? Wisconsin’s Thompson was more blunt in a local TV interview. “You know, whether you’re a Democrat or Republican, if your standard bearer for the presidency is not doing well, it’s going to reflect on the down ballot,” he said. I have no idea what pushed Menino over the edge for Warren. Maybe it was always in the cards.loui vuitton But Republicans like Scott Brown need Democratic supporters to win. A juiced conservative base may (or may not) help Romney nationally, but ideological warfare appears to be damaging Republican prospects down ballot. And regardless of who wins the White House, control of the Senate will help determine what the next President is able to accomplish with his term.
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Barack Obama campaigned as a change-the-system outsider, but he has governed as a work-the-system insider.chanel handbags for sale There??s no shame in that. But that??s what made his comment about how change doesn??t happen from the inside so annoying. Obama made his inside strategy clear immediately after his election when he announced that his chief of staff would be Rahm Emanuel, the ultimate get-it-done dealmaker, the antithesis of postpartisan statesmanship. In 2011, I asked Emanuel?what he thought of Obama??s lofty rhetoric about changing Washington in 2008.fake ugg boots ??Look, I don??t really know,?? he said with a smirk. ??I come from Chicago.?? So does Obama, and while he??s in some ways an anti-Emanuel ?? conciliatory rather than confrontational, cool rather than volcanic ?? he knew he needed an?Emanuel?to move his agenda, because bills that don??t pass Congress don??t make change. In my new book, The New New Deal, I tell the story of how Emanuel?drove Obama??s $800 billion stimulus package through Capitol Hill, and it??s not a pretty story.louis vuitton neverfull It involved a lot of screaming and naughty words, plus a few unsavory deals. But by the time Emanuel?was done calling House Appropriations Chairman David Obey a bleep and the Blue Dog Democrats motherbleeps and then-Republican Senator Arlen Specter a bleeping bleep, he and Vice President Joe Biden managed to round up the votes to pass the bill. (PHOTOS:?Political Photos of the Week, Sept. 14-20) That stimulus bill was all about change.loui vuitton It poured $90 billion into clean energy when we were spending just a few billion a year, launching a quiet green revolution; it provided a down payment on health reform that will drag our pen-and-paper medical system into the digital age. It also included Race to the Top, the most ambitious federal education reform in decades; the largest infrastructure investments since Eisenhower, including a new high-speed rail initiative; the largest middle-class tax cuts since Reagan; the largest onetime research investments ever; and much more. It even helped change Washington ?? not politically, but bureaucratically, with unprecedented transparency and oversight, and by distributing federal dollars through competition rather than check-the-box entitlement grants. Oh, and the stimulus also helped prevent a depression.fake louis vuitton It is one of the most important and least understood pieces of legislation in history. But the change it produced did not come from outside Washington. During an economic emergency, it made sense to focus more on changing the country than changing the capital. And Obama played a similar inside game to pass Obamacare, because he needed 60 votes in the Senate, and again to pass Wall Street reform; that quest for 60 has defined the arc of his presidency, forcing him to align his ambitions with the whims of a few swing Senators.replica gucci shoes But while he may not have kept his promises to change American politics, he has kept his promises to change America??s policies. His by-any-means-necessary approach has sometimes taken a political toll, producing backroom deals like the infamous “Cornhusker kickback,” but it??s gotten a lot done. It has advanced his agenda. It is changing lives.replica gucci shoes As Seth Meyers joked on Saturday Night Live: ??We can??t change it. That??s why we sent you!?? Clearly, though, Obama feels embarrassed about the gap between his lofty campaign rhetoric and his down-and-dirty legislative strategy. ??Come on, man, he was pure!?? Emanuel cackled during our interview. ??It was his chief of staff who was the whore!?? It??s hard to imagine that Obama actually believes that, but even if he doesn??t, it??s disappointing to see him pretend that the inside game can??t produce change.chanel handbags for sale It can. He proved it.
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2013年11月7日星期四

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